China’s October Export Growth Hits 11%, Widening Trade Surplus

China's export engine shifted back into high gear in October, with overseas sales rising 11.2 % from a year earlier to about US $305 billion, the fastest clip since spring and almost double the pace recorded in September. The General Administration of Customs said the surge was led by integrated circuits, electric vehicles and cross-border e-commerce shipments, as retailers in Europe and North America rushed to restock ahead of the year-end shopping season. Despite a month-on-month dip of just over one percent from September's record high, seasonally adjusted figures show underlying momentum remains solid, lifting the year-to-date growth rate to 7.1 %, well above Beijing's official target.

The rebound was achieved even as sales to the United States plunged by roughly a third, the victim of renewed tariffs and tighter scrutiny of transshipments through Mexico and Southeast Asia. Beijing's push to diversify markets cushioned the blow: exports to ASEAN jumped 23 %, those to Africa soared 26 %, and shipments along Belt and Road routes accounted for more than half of the total for the first time. Meanwhile, the product mix continued its climb up the value chain; electromechanical goods now make up nearly 60 % of exports, while the "new trio" of electric cars, lithium batteries and solar modules posted double-digit increases that more than offset softer demand for garments and toys.

The robust performance swelled China's October trade surplus to just under US $95 billion, the second-widest on record, and kept the yuan steady around 7.12 to the dollar. Economists warn the favourable base effect that flattered October data will fade over the final two months of 2025, and possible U.S. restrictions on Chinese vehicles could cloud the outlook. Still, with global inventories lean and order books in expansion territory, most forecasters expect full-year export growth to settle near 6 %, extending China's run as the world's top merchandise exporter for another cycle.